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Author Topic: Aurora Alert for Mid Latitudes...  (Read 846 times)

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Offline ant

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Aurora Alert for Mid Latitudes...
« on: 09:42:19, 14 September, 2004 »
===============================================
This Is SKY & TELESCOPE's AstroAlert for Sun-Earth Interactions ===============================================

                            A s t r o  A l e r t
                               Sun-Earth Alert

                          Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
                            http://www.spacew.com

                              13 September 2004


AURORA WATCH IS ACTIVE EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATLEY - 13 Sept

     The coronal mass ejection mentioned in the last AstroAlert was associated with a much higher velocity than solar radio observations suggested. The disturbance crossed the distance from the Sun to the Earth much faster than anticipated and impacted the Earth near 20:02 UTC on 13 September. The disturbance has the potential to produce periods of visible auroral activity across fairly wide-spread middle latitude regions during the next 12 to 24 hours.

     The middle latitude auroral activity watch has been engaged and is presently active. It will remain active through 18:00 UTC on 16 September, although the bulk of the strongest activity will occur within the next 12 to
18 hours. Interested observers should watch the night sky TONIGHT for signs of activity.

     A copy of the revised auroral activity watch for the middle latitudes is included below.


MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Issued: 20:25 UTC, 13 September 2004
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY VALID UNTIL: 18:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 16 SEPTEMBER

PREDICTED IMPACT TIME OF DISTURBANCE: IN-PROGRESS !

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 14-15 SEPTEMBER
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 14 - 16 SEPTEMBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 35, 17, 15, 15 (13 - 16 SEPTEMBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

     NORTHERN OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO TO WYOMING TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO ILLINOIS TO OHIO TO NORTHERN VIRGINIA TO MARYLAND.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

     ENGLAND TO NORTHERN BELGIUM TO NORTHERN GERMANY TO NORTHERN POLAND TO NORTHERN BELARUS TO NORTH-CENTRAL RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...

     NEW ZEALAND TO EXTREME SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA.


SYNOPSIS...

     The aforementioned coronal mass ejection has arrived much earlier than predictions suggested. This is due to an unexpectedly high transit velocity.
The velocity of the disturbance is almost twice what solar radio observations hinted at. The lack of SOHO data until just prior to the arrival of the disturbance did not impart sufficient time to adjust predictions prior to its arrival.

     The CME impacted the Earth's magnetosphere near 20:01 UTC on 13 September, increasing the solar wind velocity from a quiet value near 350 km/sec to values in excess of 550 km/sec. At the present time, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is oriented in a near-neutral configuration and might not contribute to significant intensification of auroral storm activity unless it rotates into a more favorable southward
(negative) direction.

     The middle latitude auroral activity watch has been activated, effective immediately. The next 12 to 24 hours will be the most volatile period.

     This watch will remain valid through 18:00 UTC (2 pm EDT) on 16 September. It will then be allowed to expire. For updated information, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or www.sec.noaa.gov.

              PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                  http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


** End of Astroalert **
Ant
Rayleigh, Essex, UK
Skywatcher 200, HEQ5 Canon 300D, Toucam SC1, Pentax EI2000 Digicam.

 

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